Pathways to Sustainable European Energy Systems

In this sub-project we will unite a number of system-analytical trade-offs in which biofuels are central. Analyses of biofuel supply in the short and long terms are to be combined with analyses of demand within the energy system, given e.g. EU's goals concerning renewables and biofuels. Since the role of bioenergy in goal fulfilment is heavily dependent on current energy infrastructure as well as on which other alternatives (e.g. renewable energy sources) are available, knowledge and data of high quality are required for a reliable analysis.

A central issue is how competition/cooperation between electricity and heat production and the transport sector can be developed, over time and with different assumptions about policy-related goals and control instruments, technical progress and acceptance of different alternatives. For example, an extensive expansion of the system for carbon-dioxide capture and storage, and a breakthrough for plug-in hybrid vehicles, would change the preconditions for bioenergy in both the transport sector and the stationary use of energy. Among further issues are:

• How can a powerful and fruitful development of supply for biofuel be attained? In what way is the development influenced by how actors in the supply system's different parts (plant material, cultivation, harvesting, transport and logistics) establish themselves and compete/cooperate? What will be the effects of market expansion and possible welfare losses?

• How can Europe's 5,000 district heating systems, together with new ones, constitute a basis for expansion of solid fuels from forestry and agriculture as well as lignocellulose-based biofuel for vehicles, with a heating surplus in the process? • Identification of "early opportunities" for investment in new techniques and systems. • Analysis and clarification of the extent to which different control instruments stimulate development in different directions. An additional objective is to make, starting from the analyses of the bioenergy system, generalizations for other renewable kinds of energy while taking account of similarities and differences between them.

Methods

In this sub-project we will employ Chalmers' databases and combine them with databases that become available in the EU project REFUEL. We will also use models from the Pathways "model toolbox" for analyses of future trends. A parallel refinement is presently taking place within Pathways of a calculation tool that makes it possible to estimate current and future production costs for energy crops in Europe. In sum, these analyses will give a complex picture of the interplay between, on the one hand, supplies of and competition for raw materials of biomass, and on the other hand the energy system's development and the competition between different alternatives offered in it. By making use of game theory we also want to study options for how implementation can occur, not least how different control instruments can be exploited and how they affect development.

PARTICIPATING RESEARCHERS:

Göran Berndes, Julia Hansson and Andrea Egeskog
Physical Resourse Therory, Chalmers University of Technology